Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 43.836097 51.763547 60.483715 70.756200 82.493195 95.451237 110.804923
2024-10-27 29.824984 39.684615 51.636596 67.058088 86.281158 109.295254 138.757265
2024-11-03 24.255450 35.334165 49.774278 69.682161 96.078795 129.506040 174.604169
2024-11-10 20.899936 32.840258 49.362960 73.395365 106.861330 151.136921 213.327097
2024-11-17 18.238305 30.668446 48.804808 76.443833 116.583320 171.689246 251.740068
2024-11-24 15.476136 27.784636 46.675923 76.757059 122.179271 186.687460 283.298586
2024-12-01 12.724887 24.395056 43.228796 74.532724 123.611629 195.601622 306.566314
2024-12-08 11.003260 22.390937 41.617580 74.814059 128.602444 209.741134 337.938719
2024-12-15 9.719224 20.918946 40.640341 75.903970 134.779049 225.860454 372.984061
2024-12-22 7.611286 17.536397 35.919082 70.182118 129.430976 223.815533 380.206250
2024-12-29 6.878154 16.694427 35.584400 71.902784 136.358075 241.264869 418.339913
2025-01-05 5.898693 15.166119 33.763308 70.741818 138.223606 250.596161 444.026354
2025-01-12 5.753104 15.541019 35.894930 77.527309 155.286795 287.245136 518.076819
2025-01-19 4.526290 13.240150 32.418618 73.431375 152.852990 291.621417 540.431537
2025-01-26 4.090059 12.709804 32.506282 76.258061 163.255199 318.510123 601.871864
2025-02-02 3.794228 12.463225 33.157855 80.268263 176.176681 350.566034 673.862085
2025-02-09 3.479551 12.090732 33.460739 83.559608 187.945778 381.254789 745.114977
2025-02-16 3.026652 11.215759 32.450626 83.897709 193.887891 401.722255 799.494062
2025-02-23 2.500075 9.971371 30.329603 81.496333 194.041298 411.453407 835.175948
2025-03-02 2.180379 9.275676 29.457715 81.800102 199.739252 431.846828 891.131037
2025-03-09 1.939265 8.768525 28.989143 82.976809 207.340586 456.271572 955.670640
2025-03-16 1.474104 7.310618 25.660013 76.797202 198.459995 448.038938 958.772745
2025-03-23 1.335266 7.019993 25.572229 78.656074 207.459286 475.640515 1031.032675